10/15/2019

NJSREC.com New Jersey SREC Market News Letter

Our goal is to update you on current New Jersey market information so you may make an informed decision in selling your NJ SRECs. We provide a Marketplace for New Jersey SRECs and a platform on which to monetize them.

Please contact us at support@NJSREC.com if you have any question or need assistance.

GATs originally indicated they will be minting SRECs 5 days after generation is entered starting 10/01/2019 however they indicated this may take full effect 10/31/2019

See Solar Buddy on the www.NJSREC.com homepage. We will post important updates for you there.

Current Eligible SREC Energy Years (EY) also known as reporting years

There are 6 eligible New Jersey Energy Years this month

  • 2020 EY is the current Energy Year (EY). With generation entered, 08/2019 SRECs were posted 09/30/2019. Some 09/2019 SRECs have been posted.

Energy Year:

NJ 2020 EY

NJ 2019 EY

NJ 2018 EY

NJ 2017 EY

NJ 2016 EY

NJ 2015 EY

SREC Generation Dates:

06-2019 to

05-2020

06-2018 to

05-2019

06-2017 to

05-2018

06-2016 to

05-2017

06-2015 to

05-2016

06-2014 to

05-2015

  • FOR CURRENT SREC PRICES go to www.NJSREC.com.
  • Note: To view full eligibility for each Energy Year (EY), go to www.NJSREC.com and click on each EY grid.
  • Important: You must use "Month of Generation" to determine the vintage of your SRECs.
  • Please NOTE: The 2015 Energy Year SRECs will expire 12/01/2019. Most buyers will stop buying these SRECs sometime during November. If you have these SRECs you need to sell them now!! Typically, the prices decline on expiring SRECs during the last eligible month which is November.

NJ SREC Market price movement during the August 2019 trading month 08-30-19 to 09-29-19

  • The price of New Jersey 2020 EY SRECs decreased $2.50 during the September, 2019 trading month.
  • The price of New Jersey 2019 EY SRECs decreased $4.50 during the August, 2019 trading month.
  • The price of New Jersey 2018 EY decreased $3.50 during the August, 2019 trading month.
  • Older vintages decreased $4.50 during the August, 2019 trading month.
  • New Jersey Clean Energy reported an additional 8.088 MW for August, 2019 however they reported an additional 20.891 MW which was added from previous months going back to the 2014 calendar year. The total added to New Jersey Solar capacity in August, 2019 is 28.979 MW.
  • During the past month, trading was very strong for the NJ 2020 (EY) and NJ 2019 (EY), moderate for the 2018 (EY) Energy year and light for the NJ 2017 (EY) Energy Year. Trading for the 2016 and 2015 (EY) Energy Years was very light. We Repeat, the 2015 Energy Year SRECs will expire 12/01/2019.
  • We have previously noted that NJ Clean Energy is now reporting build rates based on PTO “Permission to Operate” date. This has resulted in different metrics being used and the market believes the lull in build rates last spring and the larger reports now are affected by the new reporting method. The unevenness of the market will likely come out in the wash as the system catches up however older projects continue to be reported monthly in the new system.
  • Including the 09-18-2019 NJ Clean Energy Report information and after revisions, the 6 month installation average is 24.932 MW which 1.492 MW less than the 26.424 MW per month from last month. This is the largest decrease in quite a while.
  • Including the 09-18-2019 NJ Clean Energy Report information and after revisions, the 12 month installation average is 27.452 MW which 0.114 MW less than the 27.566 MW per month from last month.
  • The Pipeline queue for solar projects applied for and accepted less the projects that completed installation, withdrew application or washed out as of 08-31-2019 increased by 109.450 MW compared to the previous month. The Pipeline is currently 742.934 MW.
  • The installed solar capacity as of 08-31-2019 as reported was 2,955,228 kW. This capacity generates approximately 3,546,273 SRECs annually using the calculation that 1 kW of solar capacity generates an average 1,200 kWh.

NJ SREC Market food for thought, statistics and market stake holder thoughts.

Note: These are generally recognized market opinions and not necessarily the opinions of www.NJSREC.com.

Program Information:

Meeting are being held regarding the solar transition. Please see current information from NJ Clean Energy below:

2019/2020 Solar Transition Incentive Staff StrawProposal


 

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  • Per legislation signed by Governor Murphy on 5/23/2018, the current New Jersey SREC program will close either by the end of the 2021 (EY) Energy Year, June 1, 2021 or when applications are received that will make solar power production equal 5.1% of New Jersey power consumption whichever comes first.
  • New Jersey Clean Energy announced on 10/29/2018 accepted applications of midnight 10/29/2018 will have a 15 year SREC life. Applications accepted after 10/29/2018 will have a 10 year SREC life until the program closes. Existing systems will retain their 15 year SREC life as will new systems that had completed applications before (S2314/A3723) was signed into law.
  • There are many other aspects to the solar bill and we have provided a link below.  The SACP for the 2020 Energy Year is $258 and the SACP will drop $10 per year in each successive year until this SREC program ends in 2033. The SACP usually determines the top SREC price for an EY not counting administration costs. The BPU through NJ Clean Energy will be working on new solar programs which may or may not include SRECs. Planning will require the state to achieve 50% renewable electricity by 2030 which includes solar energy. The long range plan is to work towards 100% renewable energy by 2050. The implementation of closing the current program is not finalized.
  • Please note: If you have an existing system you will receive the full 15 years from date of interconnect. There will still be banking for the year of generation plus 4 additional years.
  • The Bill content is available at http://www.njleg.state.nj.us/bills/BillView.asp See   (S2314/A3723)

Trading Price Statistics through the NJ Energy Year (EY) Spectrum as of 07-29-2019 (30 DAY CHANGES)

Current 2020 EY Price

Current 2015 EY Price

Current 2016 EY Price

Current 2017 EY Price

Current 2018 EY Price

Current 2019 EY Price

Future 2021 EY Price

Future 2022 EY Price

Future 2023 EY Price

Spot Price

$222.50*

$200.50*

$209.50*

$209.50*

$217.50*

$220.50

$217.00

$185.00

$156.00

Delta (change) Current 2016 EY

Delta (change) Future 2018 EY

Delta (change) Future 2019 EY

Delta (change) Future 2018 EY

Delta (change) Future 2021 EY

Delta (change) Future 2021 EY

Delta (change) Future 2021 EY

Delta (change) Future 2021 EY

Change over past 30 days

-$2.50

-$4.50

-$3.50

-$4.50

-$4.50

-$4.50

+$1.00

+$6.00

+$12.00

Note: The reported prices above are numbers as of 10/15/2019. DO NOT USE THESE PRICES WHEN INPUTING YOUR SELL PRICE TO GATS as these prices will change during the month.

Note: This chart is based on a spot price for 2-3 NJ SRECs with NO FEEs or Commissions charged for NJ 2019 EY Compliant SRECs (2015EY-2018EY) and for 500-1,000 lot quantities on FUTURE NJ 2020 EY through NJ 2022 EY SRECs.

*Prices of currently available spot market SRECs posted above are the prices in effect at the time of this update. Prices will most likely change during the month. You MUST always enter our Web-Site posted price in GATs when transferring NJ SRECs to us.

www.NJSREC.com

 SOLAR TID BITS

  • Final July, 2019 reports show solar generation was better than last August. With the exception of a few outliers NJ systems produced, +15% to -10% kWh compared to August, 2018.
  • Current Energy Year SREC prices in the last 12 months have traded in roughly the $202.50 to $233.00 range and are current trading 4.5% off the high price for the past 12 months. Current EY SRECs are trading $13.00 higher than SREC prices this time last year. (based on 2-3 NJ SRECs with NO FEEs or Commissions charged or deducted)

Our recommendations this month:

  • For roof systems. It is fall and you should watch for leaves building up on around or under your system.
  • If you have a ground system make sure your system is clear of weeds before winter.
  • If you still have not installed a revenue grade meter you are losing valuable revenue.
  • We recommend you read your meter at least once a month.
  • The 3rd month of NJ 2020 EY SRECs were posted to the GATs platform on 09/30/2019.
  • As we state often, when asked if the prices are as high as they will go or if they are headed up or down the only advice we have is to sell your SRECs periodically. It has been difficult to pin the NJ SREC market down. Periodic SREC selling is still likely the only way to guarantee an average SREC return.
  • Regardless of when you choose to sell your SRECs, NJSREC.com is here to help you monetize your SRECs when you need us.

NJSREC.com, a 21st Century Sales Company is a New Jersey based company serving New Jersey New Jersey Solar Generators. Our NJSREC.com offices are proud to host a New Jersey Solar System and NJSREC.com runs on NJ SUN™