7/30/2017

NJSREC.com New Jersey SREC Market Monthly News Letter

Our goal is to you update you on current New Jersey market information so you may make an informed decision in selling your NJ SRECs. We provide a Marketplace for New Jersey SRECs and a platform on which to monetize them.

Please contact us at support@NJSREC.com if you have any question or need assistance.

Current Eligible SREC Energy Years (EY) also known as reporting years

  • *     There are 6 eligible New Jersey Energy Years this month
  • *     2018 EY is the current Energy Year and the 06/2017 Generation from the 2018 EY will be posted this month

Energy Year:

NJ 2018 EY

NJ 2017 EY

NJ 2016 EY

NJ 2015 EY

NJ 2014 EY

NJ 2013 EY

SREC Generation Dates:

06-2017 to 05-2018

06-2016 to 05-2017

06-2015 to 05-2016

06-2014 to 05-2015

06-2013 to 05-2014

08-2012 to 05-2013

  • *     FOR CURRENT SREC PRICES go to www.NJSREC.com.
  • *     Note: To view full eligibility for each Energy Year (EY), go to www.NJSREC.com and click on each EY grid.
  • *     Important: You must use "Month of Generation" to determine the vintage of your SRECs.

NJ SREC Market price movement during the July 2017 trading month   06-30-17 to 07-30-17

  • *     The price of New Jersey SRECs decreased an average of $62.50 during the trading month.
  • *      New Jersey Clean Energy reported an additional 31.141 MW for June, 2017 however they reported an additional 4.094 MW which was added from previous months going back to the 2015 calendar year. The total added to NJ capacity in May was 35.235 MW.
  • *      Trading continued seasonally strong for NJ 2017 Energy Year (EY) SRECs and was light for NJ 2016 (EY) SRECs. Trading for the 2015 EY, 2014EY and 2013 EY continued very light.
  • *     We have previously noted that NJ Clean Energy is now reporting build rates based on PTO “Permission to Operate” date. This has resulted in different metrics being used and the market believes the lull in build rates last spring and the larger reports now are affected by the new reporting method. The unevenness of the market will likely come out in the wash as the system catches up however older projects continue to be reported monthly in the new system. This is the first month where only a small percentage of added capacity came from previous months.
  • *     Including the 07-19-2017 NJ Clean Energy Report and after revisions, the 6 month installation average decreased by 1.10 MW. The average was 25.89 MW and decreased to 24.79 MW per month.
  • *     Including the 07-19-2017 NJ Clean Energy Report and after revisions, the 12 month installation average increased by 0.50 MW. The average was 28.79 MW and increased to 29.29 MW per month.
  • *      The Pipeline queue for solar projects applied for and accepted less the projects that completed installation, withdrew application or washed out as of 06-30-2017 decreased by 16.939 MW. The Pipeline was 414,085 MW as of 5-31-2017 and decreased to 397,146 MW as of the end of the June, 2017.
  • *     The installed solar capacity as of 06-30-2017 is approximately 2,204,450 MW. This capacity generates about 2,645,340 SRECs annually using the calculation that an average 1 kW of solar capacity generates an average 1,200 kWh.

NJ SREC Market food for thought, statistics and market stake holder thoughts.

Note: These are generally recognized market opinions and not necessarily the opinions of www.NJSREC.com.

  • *     Most New Jersey stake holders believe 15 MW to 17.5 MW of solar installed per month on average will stabilize the SREC market. Some believe that as little as 12.5 MW per month is the correct metric while others believe 20 MW on average is still on the edge of stable.
  • *     The current 12 month average of 29.29 MW continues to be significantly higher than the perceived stabilization range. The 12 month average is typically a better metric to use than the 6 month average.
  • *     As the NJ 2016 EY compliant period is over, the NJ 2016 Energy Year and previous year SRECs have moved behind the NJ 2017 EY SRECs. The different SREC vintage prices typically move as a block most times of the year, up and down with the market.
  • *     It now appears that the NJ 2017 EY price has moved more in line with the NJ 2018 EY price sooner than the market anticipated. They will likely fall in line behind the NJ 2018 EY SRECs when compliance buying is over.
  • *     NOTE*** NJ 2013 SRECs are slated to expire in two months. If you have them you should consider selling them.
  • *     The pipeline was reasonably stable September/October/November. It dropped quite a bit in December along with a very large reported build. The pipeline resumed increasing by a small amount in January, 2017 however it decreased in February and had a significant decrease in March but again increased in April. The pipeline decreased in May and again in June.
  • *     New Jersey solar growth continues to be very strong. There is a lower demand for SRECs over the next several years especially in the 2019 through 2023 Energy Years. Barring any new legislation, it appears the SREC market over supply will increase.

Trading Price Statistics through the NJ Energy Year (EY) Spectrum as of 7-30-2017 (30 DAY CHANGES)

Current 2017 EY Price

Current 2013 EY Price

Current 2014 EY Price

Current 2015 EY Price

Current 2016 EY Price

Future 2018 EY Price

Future 2019 EY Price

Future 2020 EY Price

Future 2021 EY Price

Spot Price

$171.00

$50.00

$162.00

$164.00

$166.00

$162.50

$160.00

$135.00

$95.00

Delta (change) Current 2013 EY

Delta (change) Current 2014 EY

Delta (change) Current 2015 EY

Delta (change) Current 2016 EY

Delta (change) Future 2018 EY

Delta (change) Future 2019 EY

Delta (change) Future 2020 EY

Delta (change) Future 2021 EY

Change over past 30 days

-$61.50

-$147.50

-$63.00

-$63.50

-$64.00

-$15.00

-$10.00

-$2.00

-$5.00

Note: This chart is based on a spot price for 1-3 NJ SRECs with NO FEEs or Commissions charged or deducted for NJ 2017 EY Compliant SRECs and for larger quantities on FUTURE NJ 2018 EY through NJ 2021 EY SRECs.

  •  SOLAR TID BITS
  • *     Final June, 2017 reports show solar generation was a bit weak compared to last June. With the exception of a few outliers NJ systems produced, -10% to +2% kWh compared to last June. July, 2017, solar generation is incomplete but expected to be similar to last year.
  • *     Current Energy Year SREC prices in the last 12 months have traded in roughly the $168.00 to $287.50 range and are current trading at the bottom. SRECs are trading $79.00 below this time last year. (based on 1-3 NJ SRECs with NO FEEs or Commissions charged or deducted)

This month we are again using this format to discuss the current SREC market price.

  • *      Prices declining dramatically in the last week of July.
  • *      The future prices for the NJ 2018 Energy Year which started June 1, 2017 were $45 below NJ 2017 Energy year prices last month. NJ 2017 prices have approached NJ 2018 pricing now.
  • *      We mentioned last month prices for the NJ 2018 EY have not been coming up to meet the NJ 2017 EY price.
  • *      Last month we said that while it is possible there will be up and down movement on the 2017 EY price along the way, the fact remains that the 2017 SRECs will find the 2018 price in a few months. This has occurred even before anticipated and likely NJ 2017 EY SRECs prices will move behind the NJ 2018 EY SRECs wherever the NJ 2018 SRECs are at that time when NJ 2017 EY compliance is met.
  • *      Generators should watch SREC price movement and make an informed decision in selling there SREC asset. Please check our website for current pricing.
  • *     The 1st month of NJ 2018 EY SRECs will be posted to the GATs platform on 07/31/2017.
  • *      As we state often, when asked if the prices are as high as they will go or if they are headed up or down the only advice we have is to sell your SRECs periodically. It has been difficult to pin the NJ SREC market down. Periodic SREC selling is still likely the only way to guarantee an average SREC return.
  • *     Regardless of when you choose to sell your SRECs, NJSREC.com is here to help you monetize your SRECs when you need us.

NJSREC.com, a 21st Century Sales Company is a New Jersey based company serving New Jersey New Jersey Solar Generators. Our NJSREC.com offices are proud to host a New Jersey Solar System and NJSREC.com runs on NJ SUN™