9/28/2017

 

NJSREC.com New Jersey SREC Market Monthly News Letter

Our goal is to you update you on current New Jersey market information so you may make an informed decision in selling your NJ SRECs. We provide a Marketplace for New Jersey SRECs and a platform on which to monetize them.

Please contact us at support@NJSREC.com if you have any question or need assistance

Note from GATs: Please be advised that the GATS system will be unavailable Friday 9/29/2017 from 6am-10am EDT while Certificate Creation is performed. You will not be able to log into the system until the process is completed.

See Solar Buddy on the www.NJSREC.com homepage. We will post important updates for you there.

Current Eligible SREC Energy Years (EY) also known as reporting years

  •      There are 5 eligible New Jersey Energy Years this month
  •     2018 EY is the current Energy Year and the 08/2017 Generation from the 2018 EY will be posted this month

Energy Year:

NJ 2018 EY

NJ 2017 EY

NJ 2016 EY

NJ 2015 EY

NJ 2014 EY

SREC Generation 

      
  •      FOR CURRENT SREC PRICES go to www.NJSREC.com.
  •     Note: To view full eligibility for each Energy Year (EY), go to www.NJSREC.com and click on each EY grid.
  •     Important: You must use "Month of Generation" to determine the vintage of your SRECs.

NJ SREC Market price movement during the September 2017 trading month   08-31-17 to 09-28-17

  •      The price of New Jersey eligible 2017 EY SRECs decreased an average of $45.00 during the trading month after a mid-month increase.
  •       The price of New Jersey 2018 EY SRECs decreased $2.00 during the trading month after a small $3.00 mid-month increase.
  •  
  •      New Jersey Clean Energy reported an additional 11.100 MW for August, 2017 however they reported an additional 9.412 MW which was added from previous months going back to the 2015 calendar year, most from June & July 2017. The total added to New Jersey Solar capacity in August, 2017 is 20.512 MW.
  •  
  •       Trading continued seasonally average for the NJ 2018 EY but again very strong for NJ 2017 Energy Year (EY) SRECs. Trading was strong for NJ 2016 (EY) SRECs. Trading for the 2015 EY, 2014EY and 2013 EY was moderate as a group.
  •    We have previously noted that NJ Clean Energy is now reporting build rates based on PTO “Permission to Operate” date. This has resulted in different metrics being used and the market believes the lull in build rates last spring and the larger reports now are affected by the new reporting method. The unevenness of the market will likely come out in the wash as the system catches up however older projects continue to be reported monthly in the new system. This is the second month where only a small percentage of added capacity came from legacy months.
  •      Including the 09-20-2017 NJ Clean Energy Report information and after revisions, the 6 month installation average decreased by 1.86 MW. The average was 23.93 MW and decreased to 22.07 MW per month.
  •      Including the 08-16-2017 NJ Clean Energy Report information and after revisions, the 12 month installation average decreased by 1.02 MW. The average was 29.74 MW and decreased to 28.72 MW per month.
  •      The Pipeline queue for solar projects applied for and accepted less the projects that completed installation, withdrew application or washed out as of 08-31-2017 increased by 29.433 MW. The Pipeline was 392,706 MW as of 7-31-2017 and increased to 422,139 MW as of the end of the August, 2017.
  •     The installed solar capacity as of 08-31-2017 as reported was 2,252,426 MW. This capacity generates approximately 2,702,880 SRECs annually using the calculation that 1 kW of solar capacity generates an average 1,200 kWh.

NJ SREC Market food for thought, statistics and market stake holder thoughts.

Note: These are generally recognized market opinions and not necessarily the opinions of www.NJSREC.com.

  •      Most New Jersey stake holders believe 15 MW to 17.5 MW of solar installed per month on average will stabilize the SREC market. Some believe that as little as 12.5 MW per month is the correct metric while others believe 20 MW on average is still on the edge of stable.
  •      The current 12 month average of 28.72 MW still continues to be significantly higher than the perceived stabilization range. The 12 month average is typically a better metric to use than the 6 month average.
  •      The NJ 2017 EY compliant period will FINALIZE 10/01/2017. There is no extended deadline this year. As in the past, the NJ 2017 Energy Year and previous qualifying SRECs, 2014EY through 2016, have already moved lower in value than the NJ 2018 EY SRECs. The different SREC vintage prices typically move as a block most times of the year, up and down with the market.
  •      NOTE*** NJ 2013 EY SRECs WILL EXPIRE ON 10/01/2017 and will have a “$0.00” value in the current NJ SREC market as of 10/01/2017. We are no longer buying them.
  •      The pipeline was reasonably stable September/October/November 2016. It dropped quite a bit in December 2016 along with a very large reported build. The pipeline resumed increasing by a small amount in January, 2017 however it decreased in February and had a significant decrease in March but again increased in April. The pipeline decreased in May and again in June and only decreased a small amount in July 2017. We had a substantial increase in the pipeline in August.
  •      New Jersey solar growth continues to be very strong. There is a lower demand for SRECs over the next several years especially in the 2019 through 2023 Energy Years presently. Barring any new legislation, it appears the SREC market over supply will increase

Trading Price Statistics through the NJ Energy Year (EY) Spectrum as of 9-28-2017 (30 DAY CHANGES)

Current 2018 EY Price

Current 2014 EY Price

Current 2015 EY Price

Current 2016 EY Price

Current 2017 EY Price

Future 2019 EY Price

Future 2020 EY Price

Future 2021 EY Price

Spot Price

$170.00*

$164.00*

$166.00*

$168.00*

$168.00*

$164.00

$142.50

$110.00

Delta (change) Current 2014 EY

Delta (change) Current 2015 EY

Delta (change) Current 2016 EY

Delta (change) Future 2018 EY

Delta (change) Future 2019 EY

Delta (change) Future 2020 EY

Delta (change) Future 2021 EY

Change over past 30 days

-$2.00

-$43.00

-$43.00

-$43.00

-$45.00

+$0.00

+$2.50

+$0.00

Note: This chart is based on a spot price for 1-3 NJ SRECs with NO FEEs or Commissions charged or deducted for NJ 2017 EY Compliant SRECs and for larger quantities on FUTURE NJ 2019 EY through NJ 2021 EY SRECs.

  • Prices of currently available spot market SRECs posted above are the prices in effect at the time of this update. Prices will most likely change during the month. You MUST always enter our Web-Site posted price in GATs when transferring NJ SRECs to us.

www.NJSREC.com

 SOLAR TID BITS

  •      Final August, 2017 reports show solar generation was weak compared to last August. With the exception of a few outliers NJ systems produced, -3% to -10% kWh compared to last August. September, 2017, solar generation is incomplete but expected to be a bit less than last year.
  •      Current Energy Year SREC prices in the last 12 months have traded in roughly the $158.00 to $262.50 range and are current trading near the bottom for the NJ 2018 EY and at the bottom for the NJ 2017 EY. NJ 2018 EY SRECs are trading $80.50 below current SREC prices this time last year. (based on 1-3 NJ SRECs with NO FEEs or Commissions charged or deducted)

Our recommendations this month:

  •       For roof systems. It is fall and you should watch for leaves building up on around or under your system.
  •       If you have a ground system make sure your system is clear of weeds before winter.
  •       If you still have not installed a revenue grade meter you are losing valuable revenue.
  •       We recommend you read your meter at least once a month.
  •      The 3rd month of NJ 2018 EY SRECs will be posted to the GATs platform on 09/29/2017.
  •       As we state often, when asked if the prices are as high as they will go or if they are headed up or down the only advice we have is to sell your SRECs periodically. It has been difficult to pin the NJ SREC market down. Periodic SREC selling is still likely the only way to guarantee an average SREC return.
  •      Regardless of when you choose to sell your SRECs, NJSREC.com is here to help you monetize your SRECs when you need us.

NJSREC.com, a 21st Century Sales Company is a New Jersey based company serving New Jersey New Jersey Solar Generators. Our NJSREC.com offices are proud to host a New Jersey Solar System and NJSREC.com runs on NJ SUN™