5/30/2017

NJSREC.com New Jersey SREC Market Monthly News Letter

Our goal is to you update you on current New Jersey market information so you may make an informed decision in selling your NJ SRECs. We provide a Marketplace for New Jersey SRECs and a platform on which to monetize them.

Please contact us at support@NJSREC.com if you have any question or need assistance.

Current Eligible SREC Energy Years (EY) also known as reporting years

  •     There are 5 eligible New Jersey Energy Years this month
  •     2017 EY is the current Energy Year and the 04/2017 Generation from the 2017 EY will be posted this month

Energy Year:

NJ 2017 EY

NJ 2016 EY

NJ 2015 EY

NJ 2014 EY

NJ 2013 EY

SREC Generation Dates:

06-2016 to 05-2017

06-2015 to 05-2016

06-2014 to 05-2015

06-2013 to 05-2014

08-2012 to 05-2013

  •     Note: To view full eligibility for each Energy Year (EY), go to www.NJSREC.com and click on each EY grid.
  •     Important: You must use "Month of Generation " to determine the vintage of your SRECs.

NJ SREC Market price movement during the May 2017 trading month   04-28-2017 to 05-30-17

  •     The price of New Jersey SRECs decreased an average of $5.50 during the trading month. The price moved down gradually through the month.
  •      New Jersey Clean Energy reported an additional 8.377 MW for April, 2017 however they reported an additional 19.369 MW which was added from previous months going back to the 2015 calendar year. The total added to NJ capacity in April was 27.746 MW.
  •      Trading continued seasonally strong for NJ 2017 Energy Year (EY) SRECs and moderate for the NJ 2016 (EY). Trading for the 2015 EY and 2014 EY was light and the 2013 EY continued to have very light trading.
  •     We have previously noted that NJ Clean Energy is now reporting build rates based on PTO “Permission to Operate” date. This has resulted in different metrics being used and the market believes the lull in build rates last spring and the larger reports now are affected by the new reporting method. The unevenness of the market will likely come out in the wash as the system catches up however older projects continue to be reported monthly in the new system.
  •     Including the 05-17-2017 NJ Clean Energy Report and after revisions, the 6 month installation average decreased by 6.04 MW. The average was 29.52 MW and decreased to 23.04 MW per month.
  •     Including the 05-17-2017 NJ Clean Energy Report and after revisions, the 12 month installation average decreased by 1.49 MW. The average was 29.96 MW and decreased to 28.47 MW per month.
  •      The Pipeline queue for solar projects applied for and accepted less the projects that completed installation, withdrew application or washed out as of 04-30-2017 increased by 24.701 MW. The Pipeline was 407,295 MW as of 3-31-2017 and increased to 431,996 MW as of the end of the April, 2017.
  •     The installed solar capacity as of 04-30-2017 is approximately 2,130,020 MW. This capacity generates about 2,556,024 SRECs annually using the calculation that an average 1 kW of solar capacity generates an average 1,200 kWh.

NJ SREC Market food for thought, statistics and market stake holder thoughts.

Note: These are generally recognized market opinions and not necessarily the opinions of www.NJSREC.com.

  •     Most New Jersey stake holders believe 15 MW to 17.5 MW of solar installed per month on average will stabilize the SREC market. Some believe that as little as 12.5 MW per month is the correct metric while others believe 20 MW on average is still on the edge of stable. The current 6 month average indicates long term downward pressure for SREC prices.
  •     The current 12 month average of 28.47MW continues to be significantly higher than the perceived stabilization range. This is typically a bearish sign SREC prices. The 12 month average is typically a better metric to use than the 6 month average. SREC prices show strength into compliance more years than they do not however this year with compliance 1 month away, prices are still weakening so far.
  •     As the NJ 2016 EY compliant period is over, the NJ 2016 Energy Year and previous year SRECs have moved behind the NJ 2017 EY SRECs. The different SREC vintage prices typically move as a block most times of the year, up and down with the market.
  •     The pipeline was reasonably stable September/October/November. It dropped quite a bit in December along with a very large reported build. The pipeline resumed increasing by a small amount in January, 2017 however it decreased in February and had a significant decrease in March but again increased in April. This may be small reason why prices have continued to fall in May.
  •     Solar Generation since last October has been weak as compared to last year. This is a slightly bullish sign for SREC prices.
  •     New Jersey solar growth continues to be very strong. There is a lower demand for SRECs over the next several years especially in the 2019 through 2023 Energy Years. Barring any new legislation, it appears the SREC market over supply will increase. This is bearish for SREC prices.

Trading Price Statistics through the NJ Energy Year (EY) Spectrum as of 5-30-2017 (30 DAY CHANGES)

Current 2017 EY Price

Current 2013 EY Price

Current 2014 EY Price

Current 2015 EY Price

Current 2016 EY Price

Future 2018 EY Price

Future 2019 EY Price

Future 2020 EY Price

Future 2021 EY Price

Spot Price

$212.50

$190.00

$206.50

$208.50

$210.50

$177.00

$153.00

$120.00

$85.00

Delta (change) Current 2013 EY

Delta (change) Current 2014 EY

Delta (change) Current 2015 EY

Delta (change) Current 2016 EY

Delta (change) Future 2018 EY

Delta (change) Future 2019 EY

Delta (change) Future 2020 EY

Delta (change) Future 2021 EY

Change over past 30 days

-$5.00

-$25.50

-5.00

-$5.00

-$5.00

-$8.00

-4.00

$0.00

$0.00

Note: This chart is based on a spot price for 1-3 NJ SRECs with NO FEEs or Commissions charged or deducted for NJ 2017 EY Compliant SRECs and for larger quantities on FUTURE NJ 2018 EY through NJ 2021 EY SRECs.

 SOLAR TID BITS

  •     Final April, 2017 reports show solar generation was weak compared to last April. With the exception of a few outliers NJ systems produced, -25% to +0% kWh compared to last April. May, 2017, solar generation is incomplete but expected to be less than last year.
  •     Current Energy Year SREC prices in the last 12 months have traded in roughly the $187.50 to $287.50 range and are current trading $28.00 below the average for the year. SRECs are trading $73.00 below this time last year. for 1-3 NJ SRECs with NO FEEs or Commissions charged or deducted

This month we are again using this format to discuss the current SREC market price.

  •      Prices have declined recently which is not seasonally typical
  •      The future prices for the NJ 2018 Energy Year which starts June 1, 2017 in one month are currently $36 below NJ 2017 Energy year prices. They were $30.00 lower last month. Last year the pricing for the outgoing year was very close to the new energy year.
  •      The prices for the NJ 2018 EY have not been coming up to meet the NJ 2017 EY price. Instead, the 2018 price has been moving down faster than the 2017 price of late. See the previous bullet point.
  •      While it is possible there will be up and down movement on the 2017 EY price along the way, the fact remains that the 2017 SRECs will find the 2018 price in a few months. Changes are always possible however a current lower demand for future SRECs are depressing future energy year prices presently.
  •      Generators should watch SREC price movement and make an informed decision in selling there SREC asset. Please check our website for current pricing.

    The 10th month of NJ 2017 EY SRECs will be posted to the GATs platform on 05/31/2017.

  •      As we state often, when asked if the prices are as high as they will go or if they are headed up or down the only advice we have is to sell your SRECs periodically. It has been difficult to pin the NJ SREC market down. Periodic SREC selling is still likely the only way to guarantee an average SREC return.
  •     Regardless of when you choose to sell your SRECs, NJSREC.com is here to help you monetize your SRECs when you need us.

NJSREC.com, a 21st Century Sales Company is a New Jersey based company serving New Jersey New Jersey Solar Generators. Our NJSREC.com offices are proud to host a New Jersey Solar System and NJSREC.com runs on NJ SUN™