4/30/2018

NJSREC.com New Jersey SREC Market Monthly News Letter

Our goal is to update you on current New Jersey market information so you may make an informed decision in selling your NJ SRECs. We provide a Marketplace for New Jersey SRECs and a platform on which to monetize them.

Please contact us at support@NJSREC.com if you have any question or need assistance.

GATs info: Please be advised that the GATS system may be unavailable Friday 04/30/2018 from 6am-10am EDT While Certificate Creation is performed, you may not be able to log into the system until the process is completed.

See Solar Buddy on the www.NJSREC.com homepage. We will post important updates for you there.

Current Eligible SREC Energy Years (EY) also known as reporting years

  • There are 5 eligible New Jersey Energy Years this month
  • 2018 EY is the current Energy Year and the 03/2018 Generation from the 2018 EY will be posted this month

Energy Year:

NJ 2018 EY

NJ 2017 EY

NJ 2016 EY

NJ 2015 EY

NJ 2014 EY

SREC Generation Dates:

06-2017 to 05-2018

06-2016 to 05-2017

06-2015 to 05-2016

06-2014 to 05-2015

06-2013 to 05-2014

  • FOR CURRENT SREC PRICES go to www.NJSREC.com.
  • Note: To view full eligibility for each Energy Year (EY), go to www.NJSREC.com and click on each EY grid.
  • Important: You must use "Month of Generation" to determine the vintage of your SRECs.

NJ SREC Market price movement during the April 2018 trading month   03-30-18 to 04-29-18

  • The price of New Jersey 2018 EY SRECs increased $3.00 during the March, 2018 trading month.
  • Older vintages also increased $3.00 through the trading month.
  • New Jersey Clean Energy reported an additional 7.969 MW for March, 2018 however they reported an additional 14.630 MW which was added from previous months going back to the 2014 calendar year. The total added to New Jersey Solar capacity in December, 2017 is 22.599 MW.
  • Trading was strong for the NJ 2018 and NJ 2017 (EY) Energy Years. Trading for the 2016EY, 2015EY, 2014EY’s was very light.
  • We have previously noted that NJ Clean Energy is now reporting build rates based on PTO “Permission to Operate” date. This has resulted in different metrics being used and the market believes the lull in build rates last spring and the larger reports now are affected by the new reporting method. The unevenness of the market will likely come out in the wash as the system catches up however older projects continue to be reported monthly in the new system. This is the third month where only a small percentage of added capacity came from legacy months more than three months back. The system is likely catching up now.
  • Including the 4-18-2018 NJ Clean Energy Report information and after revisions, the 6 month installation average decreased by 0.607 MW. The average was 23.750 MW and decreased to 23.143 MW per month.
  • Including the 3-21-2018 NJ Clean Energy Report information and after revisions, the 12 month installation average decreased by 1.110 MW. The average was 25.706 MW and decreased to 24.596 MW per month.
  • The Pipeline queue for solar projects applied for and accepted less the projects that completed installation, withdrew application or washed out as of 03-31-2018 increased by 50.264 MW. The Pipeline was 383.773 MW as of 1-31-2018 and increased to 434.037 MW as of the end of the March, 2018.
  • The installed solar capacity as of 03-31-2018 as reported was 2,445,402 kW. This capacity generates approximately 2,934,482 SRECs annually using the calculation that 1 kW of solar capacity generates an average 1,200 kWh.

NJ SREC Market food for thought, statistics and market stake holder thoughts.

Note: These are generally recognized market opinions and not necessarily the opinions of www.NJSREC.com.

  • Most New Jersey stake holders believe 15 MW to 17.5 MW of solar installed per month on average will stabilize the SREC market. Some believe that as little as 12.5 MW per month is the correct metric while others believe 20 MW on average is still on the edge of stable.
  • The current 12 month average of 24.596 MW is higher than the perceived stabilization range. The 12 month average is typically a better metric to use than the 6 month average. The 12 month average increased slightly this month.
  • The NJ 2017 EY compliant period ended 10/01/2017.
  • NJ 2013 EY SRECs expired 10/01/2017. We are no longer buying them.
  • The pipeline had a significant increase in February. Last month it had a significant increase.
  • New Jersey solar growth is very strong but again bit slower than previous months. There is still currently a lower demand for SRECs over the next several years especially in the 2019 through 2023 Energy Years. Both the New Jersey House and Assembly have passed a new Solar Bill that will increase total solar capacity in the short run which has led to the current higher prices. The SACP’s have been capped at a lower threshold. The Governor has not yet signed the Bill. Assuming the Bill is signed, new solar projects will only receive SRECs for 10 years. If you have an existing system you will receive the full 15 years from date of interconnect. There will still be banking for the year of generation plus 4 additional years. Once solar is installed to produce 5.1% of the New Jersey Electric Energy usage, the current SREC program will close to new applicants. There are circumstances where there may be openings for new projects all based on legislated total percentages of NJ electric power consumption and other criteria. The Bill, A3723 content is available at http://www.njleg.state.nj.us/bills/BillView.asp

Trading Price Statistics through the NJ Energy Year (EY) Spectrum as of 03-29-2018 (30 DAY CHANGES)

Current 2018 EY Price

Current 2014 EY Price

Current 2015 EY Price

Current 2016 EY Price

Current 2017 EY Price

Future 2019 EY Price

Future 2020 EY Price

Future 2021 EY Price

Future 2022 EY Price

Spot Price

$228.00*

$218.00*

$220.00*

$222.00*

$226.00*

$227.00

$202.00

$184.00

$150.00

Delta (change) Current 2014 EY

Delta (change) Current 2015 EY

Delta (change) Current 2016 EY

Delta (change) Future 2018 EY

Delta (change) Future 2019 EY

Delta (change) Future 2020 EY

Delta (change) Future 2021 EY

Delta (change) Future 2021 EY

Change over past 30 days

+$3.00

+$3.00

+$3.00

+$3.00

+$3.00

+$2.00

+$4.00

+$13.00

+$18.00

Note: This chart is based on a spot price for 2-3 NJ SRECs with NO FEEs or Commissions charged for NJ 2018 EY Compliant SRECs (2014EY-2018EY) and for 100 lot quantities on FUTURE NJ 2019 EY through NJ 2022 EY SRECs.

*Prices of currently available spot market SRECs posted above are the prices in effect at the time of this update. Prices will most likely change during the month. You MUST always enter our Web-Site posted price in GATs when transferring NJ SRECs to us.

www.NJSREC.com

 SOLAR TID BITS

  • Final March, 2018 reports show solar generation was similar to last March. With the exception of a few outliers NJ systems produced, -9% to +7% kWh compared to last March.
  • Current Energy Year SREC prices in the last 12 months have traded in roughly the $158.00 to $238.00 range and are current trading close to the high price for the past 12 months. NJ 2018 EY SRECs are trading $9.00 higher than SREC prices this time last year. (based on 2-3 NJ SRECs with NO FEEs or Commissions charged or deducted)

Spring season recommendations:

Spring is in the air and although we could see more snow, it will be time for clean up soon:

  • For roof systems. Make sure modules are clear from blown branches or winter debris. Check to make sure no animals have been chewing on your wires. When trees leaf, bud and flower there may be debris to clean also.
  • If you have a ground system make sure the area is clear of winter debris. When trees grow you may want to check to make sure you have not developed shading issues over the years. If so some trimming may be required. Be careful of you system if you do trimming.
  • If you still have not installed a revenue grade meter you are losing valuable revenue.
  • Don’t forget to read your meter periodically and make sure it is advancing as expected. Make sure your inverters are functioning. We recommend you read your meter at least once a month.
  • The 10th month of NJ 2018 EY SRECs will be posted to the GATs platform on 04/30/2018.
  • As we state often, when asked if the prices are as high as they will go or if they are headed up or down the only advice we have is to sell your SRECs periodically. It has been difficult to pin the NJ SREC market down. Periodic SREC selling is still likely the only way to guarantee an average SREC return.
  • Regardless of when you choose to sell your SRECs, NJSREC.com is here to help you monetize your SRECs when you need us.

NJSREC.com, a 21st Century Sales Company is a New Jersey based company serving New Jersey New Jersey Solar Generators. Our NJSREC.com offices are proud to host a New Jersey Solar System and NJSREC.com runs on NJ SUN™