6/30/2018

NJSREC.com New Jersey SREC Market Monthly News Letter

Our goal is to update you on current New Jersey market information so you may make an informed decision in selling your NJ SRECs. We provide a Marketplace for New Jersey SRECs and a platform on which to monetize them.

Please contact us at support@NJSREC.com if you have any question or need assistance.

GATs info: Please be advised that the GATS system may be unavailable Friday 05/30/2018 from 6am-10am EDT While Certificate Creation is performed, you may not be able to log into the system until the process is completed.

See Solar Buddy on the www.NJSREC.com homepage. We will post important updates for you there.

Current Eligible SREC Energy Years (EY) also known as reporting years

There are 5 eligible New Jersey Energy Years this month

  • 2018 EY is the current Energy Year and the 05/2018 Generation from the 2018 EY will be posted this month

Energy Year:

NJ 2018 EY

NJ 2017 EY

NJ 2016 EY

NJ 2015 EY

NJ 2014 EY

SREC Generation Dates:

06-2017 to 05-2018

06-2016 to 05-2017

06-2015 to 05-2016

06-2014 to 05-2015

06-2013 to 05-2014

  • FOR CURRENT SREC PRICES go to www.NJSREC.com.
  • Note: To view full eligibility for each Energy Year (EY), go to www.NJSREC.com and click on each EY grid.
  • Important: You must use "Month of Generation" to determine the vintage of your SRECs.

NJ SREC Market price movement during the June 2018 trading month   05-31-18 to 06-28-18

  • The price of New Jersey 2018 EY SRECs decreased $18.00 during the June, 2018 trading month.
  • Older vintages had an average decrease of $18.00 through the trading month.
  • New Jersey Clean Energy reported an additional 20.594 MW for May, 2018 however they reported an additional 6.099 MW which was added from previous months going back to the 2014 calendar year. The total added to New Jersey Solar capacity in May, 2018 is 26.693 MW.
  • Trading was strong for the NJ 2018 (EY) Energy Year and light for the NJ 2017 and NJ 2016 (EY) Energy Years. Trading for the 2015 and 2014 (EY) Energy Years was very light.
  • We have previously noted that NJ Clean Energy is now reporting build rates based on PTO “Permission to Operate” date. This has resulted in different metrics being used and the market believes the lull in build rates last spring and the larger reports now are affected by the new reporting method. The unevenness of the market will likely come out in the wash as the system catches up however older projects continue to be reported monthly in the new system.
  • Including the 6-20-2018 NJ Clean Energy Report information and after revisions, the 6 month installation average decreased by 0.378 MW. The average was 22.682 MW and decreased to 22.304 MW per month.
  • Including the 6-20-2018 NJ Clean Energy Report information and after revisions, the 12 month installation average increased by 0.546 MW. The average was 25.503 MW and increased to 26.049 MW per month.
  • The Pipeline queue for solar projects applied for and accepted less the projects that completed installation, withdrew application or washed out as of 05-31-2018 increased by 23.680 MW. The Pipeline was 552.630 MW adjusted as of 5-31-2018 and increased to 576.310 MW as of the end of the May, 2018.
  • The installed solar capacity as of 05-31-2018 as reported was 2,500,100 kW. This capacity generates approximately 3,000,120 SRECs annually using the calculation that 1 kW of solar capacity generates an average 1,200 kWh.

NJ SREC Market food for thought, statistics and market stake holder thoughts.

Note: These are generally recognized market opinions and not necessarily the opinions of www.NJSREC.com.

  • Per legislation signed by Governor Murphy on 5/23/2018, the current New Jersey SREC program will close either by the end of the 2021 (EY) Energy Year, June 1, 2021 or when applications are received that will make solar power production equal 5.1% of New Jersey power consumption whichever comes first. As of that date new application will have a 10 year SREC life until the program closes. Existing systems will retain their 15 year SREC life as will new systems that had completed applications before (S2314/A3723) was signed into law.
  • There are many other aspects to the solar bill and we have provided a link below.  The SACP for the 2019 Energy Year will drop from $300 to $268 and the SACP will drop $10 per year in each successive year until this SREC program ends in 2033. The SACP usually determines the top SREC price for an EY not counting administration costs. The BPU through NJ Clean Energy will be working on new solar programs which may or may not include SRECs. Planning will require the state to achieve 50% renewable electricity by 2030 which includes solar energy. The long range plan is to work towards 100% renewable energy by 2050.
  • The NJ 2017 EY compliant period ended 10/01/2017.
  • NJ 2013 EY SRECs expired 10/01/2017. We are no longer buying them.
  • The pipeline had significant increases in March and April and returned to normal in May.
  • Please note: If you have an existing system you will receive the full 15 years from date of interconnect. There will still be banking for the year of generation plus 4 additional years.
  • The Bill content is available at http://www.njleg.state.nj.us/bills/BillView.asp See   (S2314/A3723)

Trading Price Statistics through the NJ Energy Year (EY) Spectrum as of 05-302018 (30 DAY CHANGES)

Current 2018 EY Price

Current 2014 EY Price

Current 2015 EY Price

Current 2016 EY Price

Current 2017 EY Price

Future 2019 EY Price

Future 2020 EY Price

Future 2021 EY Price

Future 2022 EY Price

Spot Price

$215.00*

$202.00*

$208.00*

$210.00*

$213.00*

$214.00

$203.00

$180.00

$149.00

Delta (change) Current 2014 EY

Delta (change) Current 2015 EY

Delta (change) Current 2016 EY

Delta (change) Future 2018 EY

Delta (change) Future 2019 EY

Delta (change) Future 2020 EY

Delta (change) Future 2021 EY

Delta (change) Future 2021 EY

Change over past 30 days

-$18.00

-$18.00

-$17.00

-$18.00

-$18.00

-$18.00

-$5.00

-$8.00

-$5.00

Note: This chart is based on a spot price for 2-3 NJ SRECs with NO FEEs or Commissions charged for NJ 2018 EY Compliant SRECs (2014EY-2018EY) and for 100 lot quantities on FUTURE NJ 2019 EY through NJ 2022 EY SRECs.

*Prices of currently available spot market SRECs posted above are the prices in effect at the time of this update. Prices will most likely change during the month. You MUST always enter our Web-Site posted price in GATs when transferring NJ SRECs to us.

www.NJSREC.com

 SOLAR TID BITS

  • Final May, 2018 reports show solar generation was lower than last May. With the exception of a few outliers NJ systems produced, -9% to +0% kWh compared to last May.
  • Current Energy Year SREC prices in the last 12 months have traded in roughly the $158.00 to $238.00 range and are current trading 10% off the high price for the past 12 months. NJ 2018 EY SRECs are trading $10.00 lower than SREC prices this time last year. (based on 2-3 NJ SRECs with NO FEEs or Commissions charged or deducted)

Spring/Summer season recommendations:

  • For roof systems. Make sure modules are clear from blown branches or winter debris. Check to make sure no animals have been chewing on your wires. When trees leaf, bud and flower there may be debris to clean also.
  • If you have a ground system make sure the area is clear of winter debris. When trees grow you may want to check to make sure you have not developed shading issues over the years. If so some trimming may be required. Be careful of you system if you do trimming.
  • If you still have not installed a revenue grade meter you are losing valuable revenue.
  • Don’t forget to read your meter periodically and make sure it is advancing as expected. Make sure your inverters are functioning. We recommend you read your meter at least once a month.
  • The 12th month of NJ 2018 EY SRECs will be posted to the GATs platform on 06/29/2018.
  • As we state often, when asked if the prices are as high as they will go or if they are headed up or down the only advice we have is to sell your SRECs periodically. It has been difficult to pin the NJ SREC market down. Periodic SREC selling is still likely the only way to guarantee an average SREC return.
  • Regardless of when you choose to sell your SRECs, NJSREC.com is here to help you monetize your SRECs when you need us.

NJSREC.com, a 21st Century Sales Company is a New Jersey based company serving New Jersey New Jersey Solar Generators. Our NJSREC.com offices are proud to host a New Jersey Solar System and NJSREC.com runs on NJ SUN™